KAS Nordic Autumn Conference 5th of November 2025
Grand Hôtel, Stockholm
Ladies and Gentlemen, dear colleagues and friends,
It is an honour to take part in the KAS Nordic Autumn Conference 2025, and to welcome you to Stockholm and this historic Grand Hôtel. As chairman of Stockholm Free World Forum, I want to thank the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung for our long time cooperation. You are a steadfast voice for European democracy, for the transatlantic partnership, and for the European values that we need to defend together. How we do that is crucial for the future of Europe and it will for sure define European Union.
Germany and the Nordic countries are bound together not only by geography, but by responsibility. And today, that responsibility is felt most clearly here in the North.
“Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it.”
— Pericles
Those words are more than ancient philosophy. They are the task of our time.
For decades, the North was seen as Europe’s calm corner. Today it has become the central line of confrontation between authoritarian power and democratic sovereignty. This line runs across the Baltic Sea, now a primary theatre of European deterrence; through the Arctic, where the great-power contest is emerging; into the North Atlantic, our vital link to North America; and along the borders of the Baltic states, whose right to exist is openly challenged by Moscow.
These are not isolated incidents. They are deliberate campaigns to weaken the West by eroding our unity. Russia invades, coerces and commits sabotage against pipelines and data cables. It jams our airspace, attacks our networks, and spreads disinformation to divide our societies. Meanwhile, China prepares the long game — seeking leverage through infrastructure, technology and Arctic logistics.
Together with countries as Iran and North-Korea they form a cartel of evil in a confrontation that is not about Europe alone. It is global and our message to American friends must be that there is in the eyes of our enemies’ borders between Europe and North America. The Atlantic doesn’t separate us from common threats, and the Arctic requires common security.
Being democracies and open societies makes us into an enemy to totalitarian regimes acting globally, whatever we think about geography. They are the enemy of us all whatever side of the Atlantic we live in.
This is a new European reality that we need to face with a global perspective: continuous rivalry and hostilities, with the very real possibility of a European crisis involving the whole of our continent. In this perspective the North of Europe can play a key role for the development of common strength, in European Union and in Nato.
History has also given us a historic opportunity. For the first time ever every Nordic nation is in the same alliance based on a common platform of security— as full members of NATO. Finland and Sweden joining NATO has transformed the strategic map. But with a common platform of security, we can together develop strong policies with an impact on economy, foreign policy as well as security and defence.
We must turn our new political geography into a new geometry of politics and defence— a designed defence posture that adversaries respect, and ultimately fear.
Where the Baltic Sea becomes NATO’s inland sea.
Where the Arctic is a domain of shared responsibility.
Where the North Atlantic secures the transatlantic lifeline.
Where our airspace becomes one operational theatre.
Where the Nato has a strong European leg and a strong hand on the Arctic.
This is not just advantage of the new time. It is responsibility in the world where we live.
To meet that responsibility, we must deliver on three fundamental pillars.
First: Military power that is ready on Day One. Deterrence is not about statements, but capabilities. We need a Nordic Integrated Air and Missile Defence — one shared air picture and one coordinated response. We need standing maritime and undersea protection to secure sea lanes, pipelines and data cables. We need a certified Nordic Division — trained, interoperable, and fully integrated into NATO command. And we need industrial depth and ammunition stocks for weeks of high-intensity operations, not days.
Two or even three percent of GDP is not enough for a frontline region that we are today and that in worst cases can’t trust the presence of US troops. Four percent is the credible level. And added to that what we need to do for our infrastructure and for Ukraine. The question is not whether we can afford it, but whether we can afford not to. We need to make clear that any aggression against any Nordic country will prove an even bigger failure with even bigger costs than the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Second: Economic security and industrial strength. Security today is also production and resilience. We need a Nordic Defence Industrial Compact as a crucial part of European capability— procurement, export policies and permitting aligned to our strategic needs.
We must secure energy systems that are resilient: nuclear and hydro as backbone, offshore wind where it adds strength to the grid, and hardened critical infrastructure. We must develop mining and processing in the Nordics for strategic autonomy in raw materials. We must protect digital networks, including the seabed, from hostile interference and develop a strategy for European clouds as security and as a part of an open competition with US.
And when we speak of the Arsenal of Democracy, we must also recognise the decisive role the Nordics and Germany can play — as Europe’s largest economies and crucial drivers of Europe’s defence industrial resurgence. The Arsenal of Democracy can stand in Karlskoga, Kongsberg, Oulu and Odense — and, alongside them, in Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia, in Kiel, and in the shipyards and factories that build European strength. Together, we can ensure that Europe’s freedom is backed by European capability.
Third: Political unity and societal resolve. Our greatest strength is our shared values and cohesion. We must maintain unwavering support to Ukraine — until Ukraine wins — because their defence is our defence. We must ensure rapid decision-making in crises — no hesitation and no ambiguity. We must sustain a culture of total defence, where all of society is prepared for hybrid pressure. And we must have clear legal frameworks to respond instantly to sub-threshold attacks.
Democracy must not only survive threats. It must outperform those who seek to undermine it.
Let me summarise a Nordic Action Agenda in ten steps, an agenda that could lay the ground for Europes response to the threats we are facing:
- Defence funding at 4% of GDP, guaranteed by long-term agreements.
- Integrated Nordic air and missile defence, with unified command and data in the structures of Nato, can be the first step to an integrated European shield.
- Permanent maritime and undersea security in the Baltic and Arctic.
- Nordic munitions and missile production at scale, together with European partners such as Germany.
- A certified Nordic Division within NATO plans.
- Annual whole-of-society crisis testing.
- Strategic energy redundancy and protected infrastructure.
- Fast-tracked strategic industry and mineral projects.
- Legal tools for immediate grey-zone responses.
- Maximum support for Ukraine — militarily, economically, and politically. Because if Ukraine fails we have all failed.
This is not ambition. This is what security requires. What Europe needs and where we together, the Nordics and Germany, can take the lead.
The future of European security will be shaped by where we are strong, and how fast we act. If the North holds — Europe holds. If the North falters — Europe is exposed.
Germany and the Nordic countries must ensure that the North is not a gap in Europe’s armour, but the shield of a united Europe.
“Freedom is the sure possession of those alone who have the courage to defend it.”
We have the freedom. Now we must show the courage to defend it — with strength, with speed, and with European unity. The countries along the Baltic sea has a common
Let us make our part of Europe to a region of stability, providing security for the whole of Europe.
Thank you.