Inflationen somnar aldrig och kan ständigt återuppstå

Publicerat av Gunnar Hökmark den

Frågan om inflation har blivit en fråga om inflation finns som ett fenomen eller som en konsekvens av förd politik. Det faktum att världen de senaste 20 åren har sett väldigt lite av inflation har för många blivit ett besked om att vi har trätt in i en ny världsordning där inflationen inte längre är ett hot utan på sin höjd en oinfriad förhoppning, förhoppning i bemärkelsen att inflationen när den kom skulle radera ut skulder och sätta ekonomier i nytt tillväxtläge. 

Förhoppningar om inflationens välbringande konsekvenser kan man ha ända tills man möter dess konsekvenser. Urholkade löner, skulder som inflateras bort innebär också värden för sparande som inflateras bort, och en växande politisk osäkerhet och stigande räntor för att till slut möta inflationen brukar aldrig applåderas när de kommer. Bara när inflationen är så långt bort att man kan drömma om att den sätter fart på ekonomin ( vilket den inte gör men den är däremot ofta ett uttryck för att ekonomin har satt fart ) och förvandlar alla stora skulder till små ( vilket inte är så roligt för sparare, investerare och pensionärer liksom alla som inte har fasta tillgångar ). 

De senaste åren är det många som trots låga räntor och god tillväxt har moderna ekonomier vuxit ut ur inflationens logik. Så är det knappast. Snarare är det så att globaliseringen de senaste tjugo åren liksom digitaliseringen har tillfört ett utbud av varor med ständigt växande kvalitet men med sjunkande priser samt ett stort utbud av arbetskraft från världens alla delar till de delar som har haft mest behov av den. 

Men låga räntor, eller minusräntor, innebär definitionsmässigt stigande tillgångsvärden samtidigt som reala investeringar som ger ett ökat utbud av produktion blir mindre, vilket leder till galopperande prisbildning på bostäder och på börsen, något som kan kännas väl igen i Sverige. 

Dessa växande värden är en form av avledd inflation, som vi inte räknar som inflation men som för bort kapital från den efterfrågan som leder på inflation där vi räknar den, det vill säga på varor och tjänster.

Men tillgångsvärden kan inte stiga hur högt som helst om det inte finns en lönsamhet som håller upp dem. Då ser vi plötsligt finansiella bubblor brista, samtidigt som efterfrågan på varor och tjänster ökar, i en tid då utbudet på grund av pandemin, den globala ekonomins nedstängning, störda distributionstjänster och helt enkelt minskad produktion. Då blir det mycket pengar som kanske försvinner i luft men också väldigt mycket pengar som måste söka sig andra marknader än den finansiella tillgångsmarknaderna samtidigt som penningmängderna har ökats rekordartat mycket snabbare än någonsin i världhistorien.

Vad händer när snabbt ökade stora mängder pengar söker ett krympande eller stagnerat utbud av varor, och tjänster?

Stigande priser vilket är inflation. Vi är där redan nu i USA, kanske med små steg, men vi kommer få se det även här. Då är det illa att så många tror att de har avfunnnit inflationen och saknar beredskap. Den geopolitiska betydelsen kan bli stor för de delar av världen som inte förstod utan trodde att de kunde upphäva sambanden mellan efterfrågan och utbud.

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