Geopolitisk kraft kräver politik, kraft och geografisk närvaro – om avtalet med Australien

Publicerat av Gunnar Hökmark den

Man kan ha synpunkter på hur USA förmedlade information till sina allierade och på hur Australien förmedlade sina avsikter till Frankrike. Det är tveklöst så att den konflikt som nu vuxit fram försvagar den fria världen, skapar misstro bland vänner och motverkar en utveckling tillsammans som behövs. Men det är nu inte det viktigaste i det som har hänt.

Det är i stället de stora och avgörande förändringar i geopolitikens förutsättningar som nu gör sig märkta. Kinas aggression mot omvärlden har två olika dimensioner. Mot den fria världen i sin helhet använder sig Kina av diktaturens logik och medel i de fria samhällen man vill underminera. Mot den region som nu slutligen blivit känd som den indo-pacifiska präglas också av Kinas mer direkta militära hot. Det handlar om Kinas omfattande militära upprustning med den tydligaste målbilden Taiwan men också en omfattande operation för att utvidga sitt territorium i Sydkinesiska sjön i konflikt med Vietnam, Filipinerna och Japan. Både den politiska påtryckningen och den militära hotbilden drabbar Australien och Nya Zealand. 

Det är omfattande och allvarliga förändringar som har accelererat från 2016 då Australien slöt avtal med Frankrike om U-båtar för leverans i mitten på 2030-talet. Det är en annan värld som nu uppenbarar sig än den som var för blott fem år sedan. I Sverige och i Europa har vi sett det genom en allt intensivare och aggressivare påtryckningspolitik. Det gäller i än högre grad Australien som dessutom är en del av en region som blivit centrum för Kinas säkerhetspolitiska konflikt med omvärlden. Att Australien i det perspektivet anser sig behöva en ökad säkerhet, ett ökat regionalt och trovärdigt samarbete samt nya ubåtar med mer väldigt mycket snabbare än om 15 år är inte underligt. 

Till detta kommer att avtalet med Frankrike inte har fungerat som det sades skulle fungera. Diskussionerna och problemen kring ubåtsprojektet har varit många och bland annat handlat om att Frankrike inte har levt upp till att en stor del av produktionen skulle ske i Australien. Så så helt nytt för Frankrike kan inte det australiska missnöjet vara.

Oavsett detta lever Australien i en miljö där man behöver starka partners och en snabb utveckling av försvars- och säkerhetspolitisk förmåga. Det har förändrat villkoren radikalt. 

För Europa är detta ett uttryck för hur världen har förändrats och att världens avgörande konfliktcenter inte längre är i Europa. Det borde vara en god sak men det leder till att intresset för allierade riskerar att bli mindre när man inte är i centrum. Nu är det amerikanska intresset för säkerheten i Stilla Havet dominerande, och så var det varit under lång tid utan att det budskapet riktigt gått hem, till en stor del på grund av att Donald Trumps aggressivitet blev till ett fenomen i sig som dolde en verklighet som förändrats i grunden och som både han och Biden måste ta hänsyn till. 

För Europas del är det ett svaghetstecken att EU inte blev en part i denna utveckling. Men det finns tyvärr ett enkelt svar på detta. Vill man vara en geopolitisk aktör måste man ha en geopolitik. Europas problem är inte främst vår bristande egna militära förmåga utan vår bristande insikt om de hot som förenar oss. De stora europeiska länderna har en syn på Ryssland som inte delas av de länder som är landets grannar och lika lite av USA. Möjligheten att handla med Ryssland är viktigare än att försvara sig mot rysk påverkanspolitik. Samma gäller Kina. Det är som att EU-kommissionen och dess höge representant Borell inte har förstått att Kina är en diktatur som använder diktaturens metoder även mot fria samhällen. Svårigheten att ena sig kring synen på Ryssland och på Kina är ett av Europeiska Unionens stora problem men gör också unionen svag som samarbetspartner när det gäller Kina och Ryssland. Den indo-pacifiska strategi som EU bara några dagar innan USA, Australien och Storbritannien presenterade sitt samarbete är ett uttryck för oförmågan att bestämma sig för hur man ska se på Kina och oviljan att se säkerheten som en dominerande gemensam uppgift. 

Nu finns det de som av stolthet och uppbragthet vill att EU ska vända sig ännu mer inåt. Så blir man bara en svagare geopolitisk kraft. Vill man vara en geopolitisk kraft måste man ha en politik, kraft och vara geografiskt närvarande. Den debatten måste starta nu i Bryssel och i huvudstäderna. Sverige har allt intresse i att den först med tydlighet och bestämdhet. Det viktiga inför framtiden är inte hur Frankrike informerades, något som faktiskt gjordes, utan att världen har förändrats. Vill EU vara en kraft i framtiden ska man inte nu i protest vända sig inåt utan med kraft växa sig starkare och större globalt.

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