Det blir inte bättre för att 2020 tar slut. Det kräver att vi ser riskerna

Publicerat av Gunnar Hökmark den

Att världens börser har gått bra det senaste året är inte så underligt. Det uppfyller egentligen bara en mer grundläggande relation mellan efterfrågan och utbud. Mer pengar än någonsin genom rekordstora underskott och extrema penningsmängdsökningar söker sin placering i tider av noll-ränta och brist på lönsamma investeringar. 

Den globala ekonomins fall har inte gett några stora placeringsmöjligheter i reala investeringar samtidigt som konsumtion världen över har präglats av försiktighet och påtvingad återhållsamhet. Så det leder till stigande värden på finansiella tillgångar och fastigheter. Så som vi ser i Sverige och världen över. Konstigare än så är det inte. Konstigt är att inte fler ser detta som en signal om vad som kan hända de kommande åren. 

De stigande tillgångsvärdena beror ju inte på en ökad lönsamhet utan på en slags inflation i värdepapper och fastigheter. Under ytan till den börsuppgång som nu hyllas finns en lång rad föraningar om vad som ligger runt hörnet. Stora offentliga underskott, sannolikt stora kvantiteter non-performing loans, inte minst i södra Europa som redan är plågat av detta, växande statsskulder och alltför höga tillgångsvärden är inte en bra början på det förhoppningsvis glada 20-talet. 

På samma sätt som inom ekonomins värld har vi underliggande strömningar och hot inom geopolitikens och säkerhetspolitikens ramar som riskerar att ge nya och kanske större utslag när det gäller demokratiers stabilitet och fredens förutsättningar. Det vi sett blomma ut 2020 föddes inte då men fick tillfälle att växa fram. Vare sig Syriens inbördeskrig, Irans aggression, Rysslands krigföring och Kinas maktanspråk hör till det år som gått. De hör alla till den tid vi lever i. 

Vi lever nu i dagar av både tillbakablick och framåtblick. De präglas mindre av en vilja att följa de långsiktiga linjer som påverkar oss och mer av en tro på att ett nytt år innebär en ny spelplan. Så är det inte. Spelplanen är densamma. 

Det tycks finnas en enighet om att 2020 var ett unikt dåligt år som bara det gör att 2021 blir bättre. Samtidigt verkar det finnas ett brett samförstånd om att den ekonomiska tillväxten nästa år blir början på en snabb återhämtning. 

Det är lätt att hålla med om att 2020 var ett osedvanligt dåligt år. Men det innebär som sagt inte automatiskt att nästa blir bättre. 

Pandemin tog många liv och satte hela vår sjukvårdsapparat under stor stress, liksom i världen i övrigt. Osäkerheten om Brexitförhandlingarnas utgång var inte minst i Storbritannien ytterligare ett mörkt moln. Det globala fallet i ekonomin drev hundratals miljoner människor tillbaka till fattigdom och än många fler till arbetslöshet. Osäkerheten om det amerikanska presidentvalet, med en därav följande osäkerhet om den internationella världsordningen och geopolitikens förutsättningar gav skäl till stor oro. 

Ovissheten om valresultatet skulle respekteras eller dra in det amerikanska samhället i ett träsk av stämningar och ännu större misstro mot demokratin sände många varningssignaler. Storbritanniens utveckling i en hårt pressad ekonomi, i en politisk miljö som föder konfrontationer och ett nytt utanförskap kommer inte vara helt lätt att hantera. 

Irans allt mer aggressiva hållning mot Israel och mot regionens sunnimuslimska regimer ger än fler orosmoment. Kriget i Syrien. Osäkerheten om den amerikanska närvaron. Våldet mot demonstranterna i Belarus. Kriget i Syrien. Turkiets fortsatta gradvisa utveckling utför. Polens underminerade rättsstat. Ungerns allt mer auktoritära regim. Korrumperade regeringar i Rumänien, som till slut fick avgå, och på Malta. De alltfler signalerna om en klimateffekt som människan inte rår på men likväl måste möta. 

En lång rad av dessa problem, hot och utmaningar stannar inte kvar i det år som var utan rullar vidare in i 2021. 

2020 var ett dåligt år både i det lilla och i det stora perspektivet. Ensamhet och isolering för många. Osäkerhet och oro för alla. Försöken att romantisera digitala möten som om de ersätter den mänskliga samvaron och är vår framtid, som om det inte är mänsklig närkontakt som formar människor, familjer, företag och organisationer. 

De många små inslagen i våra liv som ger glädje som inte längre kunde ske. Och viktigare i stora, en underminerad internationell rättsordning, ett mode för det auktoritära som gett despoter nytt styre. Globalt samarbete som har stympats och tendenser till en världsordning där den starke inte värnar det gemensamma utan det egna intresset. 

Men blir inte 2021 ändå ett bättre år? Sannolikt på ett antal viktiga punkter. Inte minst för att 2020 genom pandemin blev så väldig dåligt. Med vaccineringar sätts en annan agenda mot pandemin, där människan genom egna insatser kan driva den tillbaka. Det kommer att leda till en explosion av framtidstro och händelser som vi alla gått och väntat på. Ekonomin kommer få en rejäl injektion. Men är det säkert att den ekonomiska kartan är så enkel? 

Vad händer med en ekonomi som haft en extrem utveckling av penningmängd och närmast noll i ränta när efterfrågan börjar ta fart och produktionen ligger efter, och sannolikt kommer att vara påverkad under lång tid framöver innan företag och arbetsplatser är tillbaka i full verksamhet. Det finns en beslutsamhet bland centralbanker att hålla räntan nere och tillväxten uppe. Men det är inte en garant mot en växande inflation när efterfrågan tar riktig fart med mer pengar bakom sig än någonsin. 

Aldrig tidigare har vi haft så stora underskott som stimulerar ekonomin, aldrig tidigare så stora återhämtningspaket och aldrig tidigare så mycket pengar. Ekonomerna tvistar om vad detta innebär. En standarduppfattning som vuxit fram är att det inte är några problem med mycket stora offentliga skulder och att ekonomierna till och med tål fortsatta underskott. Men det är beroende av att inflationen är låg så att räntorna kan hållas låga. Om vi får inflationstendenser när det glada 2020-talet börjar kan vi få en snabb tillväxt av inflation. 

Det kan leda till en inflatering av offentliga skulder som många kommer vara glada över men också till stigande räntor som färre kommer glädjas över, inte minst på de nya lån som ska finansiera omsättningen av de gamla och de stora budgetunderskotten. Många hävdar att inflationen är död men det kan man bara göra tills den börjar sparka igen. Faktum är att vi har inflationen här. 

Den snabba tillväxten av finansiella tillgångsvärden är ett uttryck för inflationstendenser; stor penningmängd och få alternativ för reala investeringar samtidigt som konsumtionsefterfrågan är måttlig leder till upptrissade börspriser. Så vad kan en växande inflation leda till? Dels kan den ekonomiska uppgången i sig leda till att fler pengar förs till reala investeringar och kanske lite mindre pengar på jakt efter aktier. Det ger stabilitet och måste stimuleras. 

Men problemen finns där likväl. Fattiga länder, eller rättare länder med instabila offentliga finanser, kan börja känna av svårigheter att finansiera nya lån, så som det var 2008. Det kan leda till social och politisk instabilitet.

I den osäkerhet som fortsatt kommer att prägla 2021 finns det skäl till oro på olika håll. Hur kommer den amerikanska politiken fungera? Kommer Kina använda sin ekonomiska styrka, och sin återhämtning, till växande politiska anspråk på andra och alltmer konfrontation mot dem som kritiserar diktaturen? Kommer det som har hänt i Hongkong drabba Taiwan i ett eller två steg? Kommer Putin att vilja ta det slutliga steget för att underminera Belarus som ett suveränt land. Ukraina, Libyen och Iran? Kommer vi se en ökning av cyberattacker från ryska och kinesiska underrättelsestrukturer? Hur kommer Iran agera för att utnyttja maktväxlingen mellan Trump och Biden, en maktväxling som Trump gör allt vad han kan för att försvåra för att försvaga sin efterträdare. 

Och kommer vi inte ha pandemins problem med oss under en relativt lång tid in i det nya året? Med konsekvenser för ekonomin, som samtidigt med växande förväntningar präglas av nedstängningar och nedfrysning. 

Blundar vi för att problemen inte stannar kvar i 2020 är risken att vi inte klarar av att möta dem 2021. 

Den ekonomiska politiken måste stimulera tillväxt och företagande. Vi håller inte tillbaka inflationstendenser genom ständigt nya bidragspaket och statlig styrning. Länderna i södra Europa måste stimuleras till strukturreformer som ger konkurrens och nytt företagande istället för statlig kontroll och monopolstrukturer. Investeringar måste göras lönsamma och attrahera kapital. 

Risk-kapitalism, aktiebolag, företagande, investeringar och konkurrens måste välkomnas, inte föraktas, hotas med utdelningsförbud eller till och med vinstförbud. Vi måste se till att inflation kan hållas tillbaka genom en bred agenda för investeringar, som mobiliserar både arbetskraft, kunskap och växande utbud och som leder till lönsamhet och tillväxt. 

Internationell handel måste växa tillbaka snabbt i den omfattning som rådde före krisen. Den globala ekonomin måste få alla möjligheter att på nytt besegra fattigdom i land efter land. 

Försvars- och säkerhetspolitik måste bli en enhet som värnar demokratier och rättsstater. Sverige måste utveckla sin försvarsförmåga mot gråzonens krigföring. Europa måste ha en gemensam säkerhetspolitik. Nato behöver fler medlemmar för att vitaliseras och för att dela de bördor freden kräver. 

Den fria världen måste möta kinesiska maktanspråk och Europa måste stå starkt mot Ryssland. USA måste stimuleras våga sig tillbaka ut som den fria världens ledare igen genom att Europa står som en partner, världen över. Klimatfrågan måste mötas genom en snabb teknisk och ekonomisk utveckling som gör fossila energikällor otidsenliga och onödiga. Det kräver ekonomisk tillväxt och fri handel, inte stopp på världsekonomin som domedagsprofeter predikar. USA och EU måste bidra till en fredlig utveckling i Mellanöstern. Med Afrika måste vi utveckla handel och investeringsavtal. 

Ja, det 2021 kan bli ett bättre år. Men ta det inte för givet. Vi måste se till att det kan bli det. Till nyårsafton tänkte jag visa på det vi har anledning att hoppas på. Dysterhet hjälper inte. 

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