Återhämtningen kräver ekonomisk liberalisering

Publicerat av Staben den

I den dysterhetens tid som präglar pandemin drömmer många om gladare tider. Det glada 20-talet blir 2021 ett självklart begrepp att se som en analogi. Mycket riktigt svämmar medierna nu över av ekonomers och sociologers förhoppningar om att 1900-talets glada 20-tal nu ska återkomma.

1920-talet en var förlängning av en lång tids liberaliseringar som präglat stora delar av Europa och inte minst Sverige. Men högkonjunkturen upphörde 1929 med den stora börskraschen i New York som slog över hela världen. Då kom arbetslösheten, de revolutionära motsättningarna slog över i våld och fattigdomen blev verklighet för miljontals. I Sverige fulländades det med Kreugerkraschen 1932 som fundamentalt kom att förändra strukturen på svenskt näringsliv.

Historien kommer att upprepa sig, hävdar dagens sociologer, ekonomer och företagsledare, mycket baserat på känslan av att ett 20-talsdecennium har en magi i sig. Men det kommer knappast att ske av samma skäl som för hundra år sedan. I vår tid är det inte frigörelsen och individens frihet som är de starkaste rörelserna, utan snarare det motsatta.

På grund av pandemin och ekonomiernas efterföljande fall har regeringar fått befogenhet att avgöra liv eller död för de företag och de jobb som skapats, samt de skattepengar som människor nu behöver. I demokratier finns risken att auktoritära styrelseformer får en legitimitet även efter krisen.

Ekonomin kommer självklart ta fart efter pandemin. Samtidigt kommer räkningarna på de största finansiella stimulanser som den ekonomiska världshistorien någonsin sett att delas ut. Vi har redan sett hur stimulanserna har gett inflationsnivåer som blir svåra att hålla även med en god konjunkturs vinster. Paket efter paket av stimulanser och monetära lättnader ger fler och fler pengar, samtidigt som färre varor och tjänster produceras. Så länge försiktigheten håller efterfrågan nere hamnar pengarna på börsen eller i fastigheter. Men efter pandemin förutspås ett efterfrågetryck som, att döma av stimulansernas historiska omfattning, lär bli betydande.

Det är viktigt att komma ihåg att det glada 20-talet inte var så glatt, utan slutade i en depression. Hellre än att tänka på att vi ska upprepa 1920-talets glada dagar bör vi se till att 2020-talet präglas av det ansvar som vår tid kräver.

I vår tid finns det skäl att hålla bromspedalen nere i kurvorna. Alla problem löses inte med nya stimulanspaket som tenderar att bli politiska styrpaket för ekonomisk inriktning och bygga upp finansiella bubblor.

Vi behöver i Europa en ny våg av liberaliserade ekonomier som släpper fram nytt företagande, som attraherar investeringar till företagens verksamheter i stället för investeringar i finansiella tillgångar och som gör det lönsamt att starta, driva och utveckla företag.

Vi kommer aldrig att klara den europeiska återhämtningen utan strukturreformer – allra mest i södra Europa – som minskar statlig kontroll över ekonomin till förmån för den dynamik som fritt företagande kan ge.

Det är därmed dags att se hur vi kan skärpa konkurrens och motverka monopolliknande verksamheter, utveckla nya verksamheter och få fart på innovationer som förändrar vårt samhälle, från energipolitik, transporter och industri till omsorgen av våra äldre och sjuka. Det gör vi inte genom att pumpa in miljarder i de befintliga strukturerna, utan genom att frigöra företagandet och innovationerna.


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