Elkrisen i Sverige kostar Europas klimatmål

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Avvecklingen av kärnkraftsreaktorerna i Ringhals innebär stora ökningar av CO2- utsläpp, jämfört med om de varit i fortsatt drift under sin livslängd. Enligt Konjunkturinstitutets beräkningar från 2019 innebär det för Europas del ökade utsläpp alltifrån 6,5 miljoner ton upp till tiotals miljoner ton. Eftersom de svenska årliga utsläppen rör sig om drygt 50 miljoner ton är det lätt att se att detta är mycket.

Även om vi för den isolerade svenska elförsörjningen hade kunnat ersätta kärnkraft med vindkraft – vilket vi inte kan – så innebär bortfallet av kärnkraft därför ökad eller fortsatt användning av kolkraft i andra delar av den europeiska elmarknaden. All utveckling av vindkraft som vi kan få behövs nämligen även för att ersätta fossil kraftproduktion. Det innebär att vi med avvecklingen av de två reaktorerna har lagt grunden för ökade utsläpp av CO2 under de kommande åren som motsvarar 25 procent av Sveriges årliga utsläpp. Det har varit förvånansvärt tyst i den svenska klimatdebatten om detta.

Avvecklingen av reaktorerna i Ringhals har dessutom två mer fundamentala konsekvenser än just de ökade utsläppen som försvårar för Europa att nå klimatmålen.

För det första försvårar det, tillsammans med motsvarande process i Tyskland, Europas förmåga att nå ambitiösa mål och underminerar våra möjligheter att sätta dem högre. När medlemsstater i EU får svårare att nå sina mål på grund av att de tvingas använda kolkraft förlorar vår röst i världen styrka.

För det andra och kanske än mer allvarligt; när vi minskar på elproduktion i allmänhet förlorar vi möjligheten att genom god tillgång på el ersätta fossila bränslen inom transport, industri och uppvärmning.

Sverige måste visa att vi kan gå i bräschen med fossilfri elektrifiering av transporter. En avveckling av fossilfri kraftproduktion minskar tvärtemot tillgången på el som fullt ut kan bidra till utfasningen av fossila bränslen.

I Sverige har vi internationellt framstående utveckling av industriella processer där el kan ersätta fossila bränslen. De kan sätta ett internationellt mönster och bidra till nya standarder för energianvändning. Den globala betydelsen av detta är långt större än eventuella minskningar i Sverige, även större än de ökningar vi nu bidrar till.

Om vi har elbrist förlorar vi möjligheten att visa hur den globala ekonomin på bred skala kan ersätta fossila bränslen. Då talar vi om en väsentligt större påverkan på klimatet än den direkta konsekvensen i form av ökad fossil kraftproduktion på den europeiska elmarknaden. Det är något varken Sverige eller världen har råd med.

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